中国共产党百年人民观的历史演进及其经验启示

党的人民观是中国共产党在百年奋斗历史进程中对人民群众的立场、地位、作用、评价标准的总体看法和具体态度.作为系统的理论体系,它的形成和发展是理论演进的内在需要和实践活动的深刻变动彼此印证和相互推动的必然结果.因此,要将其置放在不同的历史坐标上来把握中国共产党人民观的话语逻辑和演化规律;要在理论的不断生成和构建过程中彰显其鲜明品格和独特魅力;要在中国共产党百年奋斗征程中获得历史启迪和经验启示.     

An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards

This article proposes a novel mathematical optimization framework for the identification of the vulnerabilities of electric power infrastructure systems (which is a paramount example of critical infrastructure) due to natural hazards. In this framework, the potential impacts of a specific natural hazard on an infrastructure are first evaluated in terms of failure and recovery probabilities of system components. Then, these are fed into a bi‐level attacker–defender interdiction model to determine the critical components whose failures lead to the largest system functionality loss. The proposed framework bridges the gap between the difficulties of accurately predicting the hazard information in classical probability‐based analyses and the over conservatism of the pure attacker–defender interdiction models. Mathematically, the proposed model configures a bi‐level max‐min mixed integer linear programming (MILP) that is challenging to solve. For its solution, the problem is casted into an equivalent one‐level MILP that can be solved by efficient global solvers. The approach is applied to a case study concerning the vulnerability identification of the georeferenced RTS24 test system under simulated wind storms. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for identifying critical locations under multiple hazard events and, thus, for providing a useful tool to help decisionmakers in making more‐informed prehazard preparation decisions.     

Language roulette – the effect of random placement on refugees’ labour market integration

Placement of refugees and subsequent labour market integration within a host country represents a key challenge for policymakers and has emerged as one of the most divisive topics in the public debate. Immigration policy in Switzerland adopts random placement of asylum seekers across its different language regions. Hence, this policy allows to estimate the causal effect of language skills on employment chances, as refugees are exogenously placed across regions where the spoken language could either match or deviate from individual language skills. The results of this ‘natural experiment’ indicate substantially higher probabilities of finding employment when asylum seekers are placed in regions with a lingua franca that matches their individual language skills. Additionally, the findings suggest that language course participation can offset the reduced likelihood of employment in cases of a language mismatch. While random placement of refugees may be desirable for political reasons, it is detrimental to the economic integration process. Thereby, the study draws relevant conclusions for a larger European immigration policy.     

集体行动视角下的制度逻辑演化机制研究

通过对我国专车服务市场制度变革过程的纵向案例研究，探讨了组织场域中的集体行动如何推动制度逻辑演化的内在机制问题。研究发现：制度逻辑的演化过程主要经历了分离、冲突和共存三种状态，不同的制度逻辑的演化是由行动主体能动性策略和资源利用所构建的集体行动模式差异性驱动的。制度变革机会的涌现促使场域中的行动主体采用协调性的集体行动模式，促成了新制度逻辑的生成，并导致了新、旧两种制度逻辑的分离；在制度变革机会变得模糊的场域中，行动主体非协调的集体行动促使新、旧两种制度逻辑之间的激烈冲突；而在制度变革机会沉没的情境下，行动主体再协调性的集体行动最终促成了新、旧两种制度逻辑的共存。研究结论对我国当前复杂制度环境下新兴业态的发展以及传统业态的协同治理提供了重要的借鉴和启示。     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

突发重大疫情网络舆论的生成逻辑､演进特征与治理机制

新形势下突发重大疫情网络舆论不仅给疫情防控带来了严峻挑战，而且给维护国家意识形态安全带来了较大压力。厘清网络舆论的生成逻辑，把握网络舆论发展的演进特征，对做好网络舆论引导与谣言治理意义重大。在现代网络社会，随着交往实践的普遍进行，从现实逻辑、实践逻辑与理论逻辑来看，突发重大疫情网络舆论的生成，是网络议题、网络交往和网络传播相互作用的结果。受网络社会交往实践主体、客体、环体和介体等多种因素影响，突发重大疫情网络舆论又呈现为非线性的发展演进趋势，极易引发“蝴蝶效应”造成舆论秩序失范，甚至导致“塔西佗陷阱”的舆论信任危机，给疫情防控带来复杂变数。必须建立健全网络舆论治理机制，有效管控舆情，提高疫情防控治理水平。     

雷达的文学评论与1980年代社会学批评方法的嬗变

雷达是秉承着当代文学社会历史批评传统走上文学批评道路的。社会学批评方法在20世纪50—70年代存在“泛政治化”“泛阶级论”的弊病，并在“文革”期间走向了极端，沦为沾满血污的“棍棒”。为了使社会学批评正常化、健康化，1980年代的文艺理论批评界对社会学批评的“真实性”“时代本质”“思想倾向性”等尺度进行了调整。雷达的文学批评历程恰恰体现了社会学批评方法面对时代转型与文学新潮进行积极调整的过程。与阎纲、许觉民等年长的批评家一道，雷达迎纳新潮，独立思考，渐渐形成了他凝聚着个性魅力的“历史—美学”批评，为备受质疑与冷遇的社会学批评方法开拓了蜕变与更生之路。     

社会发展内涵探析

作为马克思主义哲学研究的社会发展，不是对具体的社会发展问题进行实证研究，而主要是运用逻辑手段，对复杂的社会发展现象进行抽象、概括，揭示出社会整体发展的普遍本质和一般规律。为了对社会发展有一个较为全面的理解，从社会、社会革命、社会变迁、社会转型与社会发展之间的关系入手进行了探讨。     

进化论思潮与唯物史观的传播——近代中国两大思想关系刍议

进化论思想与唯物史观同为近代中国影响广泛的思想。二者的传入时间接近，并且都经历了中国化的过程。随着进化论思想在现代遭到了越来越多的批判和质疑，唯物史观早期传播和发展的历程也经历了重新的审视。文章从近代思想史发展的事实出发，重新厘清两种思想的关系，并具体论证马克思的唯物史观能否从广义上归结为一种进化论的思想，以及进化论思想在中国是否经历了一个向唯物史观转变的历程。     

城镇化、工业化对农业全要素生产率增长的影响研究——来自重庆37个县(区)面板数据的证据

文章基于2000—2016年重庆37个县（区）面板数据，使用序列DEA方法测算了重庆农业全要素生产率变动，在此基础上探讨了重庆农业全要素生产率增长的时间演变，并从理论和实证层面系统考察了城镇化和工业化对农业全要素生产率增长的影响。结果表明：首先，2000—2016年间重庆市农业全要素生产率呈上升趋势，2007年后重庆市农业全要素生产率增长更为明显，并且重庆市各地区呈现出明显的空间不平衡性。其次，动态面板模型的实证结果表明城镇化对农业全要素生产率增长具有显著正向影响，工业化对农业全要素生产率增长也具有显著正向影响。最后，研究还发现基础设施、教育水平以及金融发展程度对农业全要素生产率增长均具有显著正向影响，而产业结构对农业全要素生产率增长具有显著负向影响。